# How to calculate the probability of winning a bet

Many people who play betting often equate this hobby with science, particularly mathematics. This is not always justified, but there is still a commonality: in both fields, random events can occur, and in mathematics, their probability is determined by special formulas. How can something like this be applied to sports betting?

Indeed, if a number of variables capable of triggering random events are not taken into account when estimating a possible outcome, the final result may be far from what is expected. Sciences such as econometrics and statistics are used to study the possible outcome of a random event in a practical way. If we talk about events from the world of sports, a special role is played by probability theory, a mathematical section focused on the study of random events and their properties.

## Bookmaker's margin as an insurance against accidents

Probability theory in sports betting is the basis on which the betting business is built. All bookmakers put a margin in their odds, and it allows them to get income, regardless of the outcome of the sporting event. In this case, the bookmaker quotes are set based on the probability of a particular outcome. If they are calculated incorrectly, the bookmaker will incur losses.

For example, in the UEFA Super Cup match bookmaker estimated the probability of Liverpool's victory in regulation time odds 1.77. If we divide 1 by this quotation and translate it into percentages the probability of the Merseyside victory will amount to 56.4%: 1 / 1.77 х 100 = 56.4%

If we similarly convert the odds of a draw and Chelsea's win into a percentage probability, we can find out the bookmaker's margin:

- 1 / 4 х 100 = 25%. This is the percentage probability of a draw.
- 1 / 4.2 х 100 = 23.8%. This is the probability of a win for the "aristocrats".
- As we know, the maximum percentage of probability is 100. If you sum up the results and subtract 100, you know how much profit the bookie bets for the market outcome of the match: 56.4 + 25 + 23.8 - 100 = 5.2.

It turns out that at any outcome bookmaker profit margin will be about 5.2% of the total volume of bets on this outcome.

In addition to the analytical departments of betting shops, mathematics is also in demand for professional bettors. Translating statistical data into numbers and conducting a mathematical analysis of the planned betting, it is possible to determine the following indicators with a certain degree of probability

The number of shots at the goal line:

- average corner kicks
- ratio of unrealized chances of goal from the total number of attacks
- number of fouls and awarded yellow and red cards
- the current form of the club or a specific player etc.

In other words, the mathematical calculation of bets to a certain extent increases the player's chances in the "confrontation" with the bookmaker.

### Valuation bets as a part of matanalysis

From time to time in the bookmakers' lines there are events with over or underestimated outcomes (i.e. with underestimated or overestimated odds respectively). The list is formed or checked by a person, hence, errors are inevitable. Such markets are commonly referred to as valuation markets.

There are a number of professional players who play only foolish outcomes: it allows them to stay in the black at a distance. Of course, this is only possible if the player understands the theory of probability in soccer betting or other sports, and is able to separate important information from data sets and calculate correctly.

On the Internet you can also find special services that monitor the bookmakers' lines and automatically collect from them such wagering bets or, as they are also called, overbetting.

### Mathematical expectation: what it means in betting

Of course, it is possible to get a big win on a certain bet without mathematical knowledge and even without understanding the rules of the game (to the question of randomness). Some inexperienced players after a few successful bets begin to consider themselves betting gurus, which, of course, is not true.